Economic focus: Who were the winners and losers of 2009?

Date: London, 23 Dec 2009

Winners of 2009

Winner: Bank of England

To stave off the full effects of the financial crisis, the Bank of England reduced interest rates to record lows and implemented one of the largest quantitative easing programs, injecting £200 billion into the UK economy.

Mark Bolsom, Head of the UK Trading Desk at Travelex, the world’s largest non-bank FX payments specialist, says, “The Bank of England is definitely one of the winners of 2009. Their unwavering and stringent approach in tackling the economic crisis has built the foundations for an orderly recovery. Not only is their asset purchasing programme starting to have an affect, they also staved off the threat of deflation, which, at the onset of the crisis, was a major concern.” 

Winner: Alistair Darling

Throughout 2009, the decisions made by Alistair Darling have been pummelled by the media and economists alike.

Bolsom says, “Although some would disagree, I think Darling was a real winner this year. He inherited an impossible situation, yet worked competently with the Bank of England to prevent the total collapse of the UK banking system- allowing RBS or Lloyds to collapse would have been catastrophic. He has also managed to keep unemployment lower than expected.”

Winner: Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Government

Australia was the only developed nation outside of South Korea to post growth in the first quarter and to raise interest rates in the third quarter of 2009.

Bolsom says, "These two institutes can pat themselves on the back for pulling off the rather remarkable feat of ensuring Australia remained the only developed nation not to go into recession, albeit by official measures, in 2009. 

“Public sector spending, fiscal stimulus and increased Chinese demand for Australian mineral exports all helped steer the country through the financial crisis.”

Losers of 2009

Loser: The Great British Pound

The pound began the year 4.5 pc down against the euro, 5.7 pc against the yen and 6 pc against the US dollar. Since the record highs in November 2007, sterling has plunged around 35 pc against the dollar.

Bolsom says, “From a UK perspective, the big loser of 2009 is Sterling. There were a few points in the year when the pound looked set to improve but any advances were kept in check by negative comments from the Government and Bank of England, who felt that a weak pound was crucial in boosting UK exports.

“Going into 2010, we expect the pound to remain weak across the board, as the challenges facing the British economy will remain the same, with sterling's performance over the next twelve months likely to heavily influence future economic policy. Mervyn King has already put down his marker, arguing strongly in favour of a weaker pound. Quite whether politicians are prepared to follow him remains, as yet, to be seen.”

Loser: Greece

With national debt nearing €300 billion euros - 110% of Greece's GDP - things deteriorated in December when their credit rating was downgraded by two agencies in one week.

Bolsom says, “Greece almost got through the year unscathed. However, after their credit ratings were reduced in December, a mass selling of Greek stocks and assets ensued, exposing the euro’s vulnerability.

“Greece’s debt crisis is causing problems for the entire euro zone.  If any more euro zone countries raise concerns about their debt – as Spain, Austria and Portugal have recently - it could spell the end of the euro's reign as currency supreme.”

Loser: Gordon Brown

Despite seizing the initiative at the onset of the recession, Gordon Brown will not look back fondly on 2009.

Bolsom says, “Brown's reputation for "prudence" is now in tatters as the UK copes with its biggest economic downturn since World War 2. Quite rightly, economists have questioned why more money had not been set aside during the boom years. The spotlight has also fallen this year on Brown's decision to sell half of the UK's gold reserves between 1999 and 2002. And despite his advocacy of fiscal stimulus, he still hasn’t made it clear what he plans to do when we can’t borrow anymore.”

Ends

Media enquiries
Jessica Buttress
Head of PR for Travelex Global Business Payments UK
0208 415 4204
077954 497129
Jessica.buttress@travelex.com

Notes to editors

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About Travelex

Founded in 1976, Travelex is the world’s largest non-bank foreign exchange and payments specialist; with operations across four continents and 6,000 employees worldwide.

Travelex holds key positions in its three main areas of activity: Global Business Payments (TGBP, which includes Travelex Personal Payments), Currency Services and Card and Mobile Payments. Every year, more than 35,000 corporate clients and 30 million customers trust Travelex to manage their foreign exchange requirements.

Recently recognised by TowerGroup research as Industry Leader for payments innovation for SMEs, Travelex currently handles international payments for over 750 large corporate and financial institutions.

Visit www.travelexbusiness.com/uk for more information or email the press office at Jessica.Buttress@travelex.com